Strong Demand and Evolving Consumer Trends

As fall sets in and producers look toward the year-end cattle market, the beef industry continues to balance supply challenges with strong demand. Millennial Ag spoke with Dr. Phil Bass, meat scientist and professor at the University of Idaho, about where the industry stands and the opportunities he sees ahead.

Bigger Carcasses, Steadier Supply

One of the most significant shifts Bass highlighted is the growth in carcass weights. “When I was doing my Ph.D. research at Colorado State, a really heavy beef carcass was about 850 pounds,” he said. “Now, 850 pounds is about 100 pounds under what the average steer carcass weighs.”

Today, average carcass weights consistently hover between 930 and 950 pounds, with many topping 1,000 pounds. This growth has helped stabilize beef supply despite a shrinking national cow herd. “Thankfully, we have big cattle,” Bass noted. “We maybe don’t have quite as much beef being produced, but it would have been a lot less if we didn’t have these really big carcasses.”

Herd Rebuilding Will Take Time

Even with carcass size gains, Bass cautioned that the industry is not likely to see a quick rebound in overall cattle numbers. Ongoing drought across the central plains continues to slow herd rebuilding. However, beef-on-dairy crossbreeding has helped bolster supply. “The dairy industry is somewhat of a savior of the U.S. beef industry right now,” Bass explained. Crossbred calves are filling feedyard and packing plant capacity while also producing beef with strong marbling.

Demand Holds Strong Despite Prices

At the retail level, beef demand remains resilient. Ground beef prices, while still elevated, appear to be leveling off. “Steaks are the ones that I’m impressed with,” Bass said. “I’m impressed that folks are willing to spend that kind of money still for steaks. And I’m grateful for it. I also attribute a lot of that to the fact that we have a really high-quality beef out there right now.”

Indeed, grading statistics tell the story. The U.S. beef industry is currently grading about 85 percent Choice and Prime, with Prime alone around 12 percent. These levels Bass described as “absolutely incredible.” In the mid-1990s, nearly half of graded beef fell into the Select category. Today, Select often represents less than 15 percent. “The entirety of the beef industry has changed to higher-marbling cattle because cattle producers get paid more if their animals are more valuable,” Bass explained.

New Interest in Offal and “Ancestral Blends”

While steaks and ground beef dominate retail sales, Bass pointed to renewed interest in offal cuts among younger consumers. “There’s been a resurgence of the Millennial and Gen Z crowd that are just interested in something different,” he said. Some companies are now marketing “ancestral blends,” mixing organ meats like liver, kidney, and heart into ground beef products.

Legally, these products cannot be labeled as ground beef, since U.S. standards restrict that definition to skeletal muscle and adjacent fat. Still, Bass sees potential benefits in the trend. “If people want to have ground beef with liver mixed in, go nuts. The more we use of that animal, the better. If we’re having growing demand for offal cuts in the United States, it’s going to just drive more value to the whole beef carcass,” he said.

International markets remain vital for those cuts, particularly the Middle East and Mexico, where livers, tongues, and other items are in high demand. Domestic curiosity only adds value.

Efficiency and Animal Comfort Will Drive the Future

Looking ahead, Bass predicted that efficiency gains will come from improved cattle management, especially in feedyards. “We will continue to see a lot of efficiencies at the feedyard level because that’s where we’re going to have those really thin margins based on feed availability,” he said.

Progressive feeders, particularly in the West, are already experimenting with strategies to keep cattle eating and comfortable under challenging conditions. Something as simple as providing shade can make a measurable difference. “Some of these progressive yards are making enormous efficiency strides by just putting up shade,” Bass explained. “It’s nothing that substantial, but it’s enough to knock down that direct sunlight. If we can make them more comfortable, they’re going to want to eat. They’re going to want to grow. And that’s good for the bottom line. It’s good for the animal as well.”

Beef’s Enduring Strength

Despite supply challenges, Bass remains optimistic about beef’s position in the protein marketplace. Poultry continues to expand, but beef demand has proven remarkably resilient, thanks to both quality and consumer loyalty. “I don’t see anybody that’s really turning it down that much,” he said.

As the industry adapts with larger cattle, better genetics, new product niches, and continued focus on animal comfort, Bass sees a future where beef continues to thrive. “It all comes back to quality,” he concluded. “And people are willing to pay for it.”

Resilience and Innovation: Beef’s Path Forward

As the beef industry navigates supply constraints, evolving consumer preferences, and environmental challenges, its resilience is evident in both tradition and innovation. From heavier carcasses and high-quality grading to the rise of beef-on-dairy crossbreeding and renewed interest in offal cuts, producers are finding creative ways to meet demand and maximize value. Dr. Phil Bass’s insights underscore a future shaped by efficiency, animal comfort, and a steadfast commitment to quality. With consumers continuing to invest in premium beef and explore new product niches, the industry is well-positioned to thrive. This proves once again that adaptability is the cornerstone of agricultural success.